A while ago, many of us were eager to finally witness the end of the pandemic. To have the opportunity and privilege to travel again, to see the world, explore new cities and get immersed in new cultural experiences. And not just that, but to bring security to the world economy. Get the businesses booming and value of your investment portfolios increasing. To feel the future being a little bit more secure than it has been during the past 2 years.

How wrong we were. So wrong.

The events in Eastern Europe today echo the message of 1930s very loudly. It is so easy to compare Crimea of 2014 to Sudetenland in 1938 and Ukraine of 2022 to Poland in 1939. We are all horrified as no war of this scale has happened in Europe since 1945.

Even though it is said that history repeats itself, I think that in reality things are a little bit more complicated than that and we simply shouldn’t try to predict the next move based on only historical events.

Now, let me get one thing straight first. By saying Russia, I mean the Russian state controlled by Kremlin. Many ordinary Russian people are opposing this war as much as we are. They are equally shocked and horrified but they are also afraid of the consequences if they voice their discontent. Please don’t point your anger towards them. There is already enough hatred in the world.

A few years ago, I read a book called Prisoners of Geography, written by a former journalist and author Tim Marshall. This book gives some insights to the importance of geography in warfare and defense. The land from Northern Germany across Poland, Belarus and the Baltic States to St Petersburg and Moscow is mostly flat. There aren’t tall mountains, huge rivers or any impenetrable natural obstacles to slow down or stop the advance of invading armies. Same applies to Ukraine. It is very flat terrain from Black Sea all the way to Moscow. Who controls these lands, can simply drive their tanks to Moscow and make the Russian capital fall (probably easier said than done).

The only way for Moscow to stay secure is to have this territory under their own control — either directly or indirectly through loyal allies. When the enemy has to travel through thousands of kilometres of hostile territory to reach their targets, the service lines are simply far too long and vulnerable for their armies to survive the campaign. Add the brutal Russian winter in the mix and you may have a chance to save Moscow. Napoleon and Hitler learned this the hard way.

When the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia was weak, Poland and the Baltic States joined the EU and NATO as soon as they could. They knew from history that Russia cannot be trusted and the geography of their terrain also works for their own disadvantage by being hard to defend. Ukraine wanted to do the same, but Russia of today simply cannot allow it to happen. 20 years ago the situation might have been different.

I am quite certain that Kremlin knows NATO isn’t going to invade them today, this year or even next year, if ever. They just cannot know who is going to be leading the USA, France or Germany in the future. The situation might change and when it changes, it’s too late to fix it.

If you’ve read other books focussing on the current masters of Kremlin (e.g. by Luke Harding), you might know that it’s not just about protecting Russia, but about the wealth and the fortunes of the Kremlin cronies. Authoritarian states are often based on personality cults and kleptocracy where the elite hoards the fortunes of the businesses and people in their own coffers. Meanwhile they control the majority if not all of the media to create a polished image of themselves as benefactors, protectors and the saviours of the people and their country, while suppressing the critique. The world will never become any better place if we let people like this to gain power.

If these leaders lose their power, they also lose their wealth and in most cases, they will lose their heads. It is incredibly unlikely for a foreign enemy to invade and take over a country possessing a nuclear weapons arsenal and one of the strongest armies in the world. The real threat comes from within. People might turn against their leaders and start a revolution. Competing likeminded kleptocrats may want to take over and get rid of the old regime. While the Soviet Union was considered a global superpower, Russian economy is not really significant on a global scale, making Russia only a regional power if looked only from the GDP perspective. There is a lot of inequality and poverty, crumbling infrastructure and worsening conditions for the residents. Many freedoms have been gradually taken away during the past 10 years. Elections will mean nothing as their results are constantly manipulated. This will make the people angry and dissatisfied. Leaders know that if they become the targets of this contempt, the days of their reign are eventually numbered. That’s when the foreign enemy often steps into the picture as an attempt to show the power of the leaders and how only they can protect the country and its people.

I don’t believe western powers can do much to resolve this situation other than make the voices from within Russia grow louder and louder. It will mean that many innocent people will suffer but that is always the price of war and we all know who is the guilty one behind this war. I don’t believe there will be peace until Putin’s era comes to an end. Russian people will have to take over the streets and start a revolution to achieve that. The response from the regime will be brutal and merciless but it wouldn’t be the first Russian revolution.

That’s what Putin and his cronies are really afraid of.